Cardiovascular events, mortality, early retirement and costs in >50 000 persons with chronic heart failure in Sweden.

AIMS: We aimed to examine cardiovascular events (stroke and myocardial infarction [MI]), mortality, early retirement and economic costs over 5 years in people with chronic heart failure (CHF) and matched controls in Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals (aged ≥16 years) living in Sweden on 1 January 2012 were identified in an existing database. Individuals with CHF were propensity score matched to controls without CHF by birth year, sex and educational status. We analysed risks of stroke, MI, mortality and early retirement, and compared direct costs (inpatient care, outpatient care and drug costs) and indirect costs (work absence). After matching, there were 53 520 individuals in each cohort. In each cohort, mean age was 69.0 years (standard deviation 8.2), and 29.7% of individuals were women. People with CHF were significantly more likely than controls to experience stroke (hazard ratio 1.46 [95% confidence interval 1.38-1.56]) and MI (1.61 [1.51-1.71]). All-cause mortality was nearly three-fold higher (2.89 [2.80-2.98]) and the likelihood of early retirement was more than three-fold higher (3.69 [3.08-4.42]). Total mean annual costs per person were €9663 (standard error 38) for people with CHF, of which 53% were direct costs, and €2845 (standard error 19) for controls, of which 40% were direct costs. In people with CHF, inpatient costs comprised 78% of total annual mean direct costs over follow-up, outpatient costs contributed 15% and drug costs contributed 8%. In controls, the corresponding proportions were 71%, 18% and 11%. CONCLUSIONS: CHF has a considerable impact on the risk of cardiovascular events and death, early retirement and economic costs. Inpatient admissions and work absence are major contributors to economic costs.

Economic burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: a matched case-control study in more than 450,000 Swedish individuals.

AIM: To examine direct and indirect costs, early retirement, cardiovascular events and mortality over 5 years in people with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and matched controls in Sweden. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥ 16 years living in Sweden on 01 January 2012 were identified in an existing database. Individuals with ASCVD were propensity score matched to controls without ASCVD by age, sex and educational status. We compared direct healthcare costs (inpatient, outpatient and drug costs), indirect costs (resulting from work absence) and the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and early retirement. RESULTS: After matching, there were 231,417 individuals in each cohort. Total mean per-person annual costs were over 2.5 times higher in the ASCVD group versus the controls (€6923 vs €2699). Indirect costs contributed to 60% and 67% of annual costs in the ASCVD and control groups, respectively. Inpatient costs accounted for ≥ 70% of direct healthcare costs. Cumulative total costs over the 5-year period were €32,011 in the ASCVD group and €12,931 in the controls. People with ASCVD were 3 times more likely to enter early retirement than controls (hazard ratio [HR] 3.02 [95% CI 2.76-3.31]) and approximately 2 times more likely to experience stroke (HR 1.83 [1.77-1.89]) or MI (HR 2.27 [2.20-2.34]). CONCLUSION: ASCVD is associated with both economic and clinical impacts. People with ASCVD incurred considerably higher costs than matched controls, with indirect costs resulting from work absence and inpatient admissions being major cost drivers, and were also more likely to experience additional ASCVD events.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: A Retrospective, Observational Study of Economic and Clinical Burden in Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at high risk of experiencing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is associated with morbidity, mortality and healthcare resource utilisation. Clinical guidelines recommend the use of glucose-lowering medications with cardiovascular benefits in individuals with T2D and cardiovascular disease, but there is evidence that this is not reflected in clinical practice. We used linked national registry data from Sweden to compare outcomes in people with T2D and ASCVD against matched controls with T2D without ASCVD, over 5 years. Direct costs (inpatient, outpatient and selected drug costs), indirect costs resulting from work absence, early retirement, cardiovascular events and mortality were examined. METHODS: Individuals with T2D who were at least 16 years old and were alive and resident in Sweden on 1 January 2012 were identified in an existing database. In four separate analyses, individuals with a record indicating ASCVD according to a broad definition, peripheral artery disease (PAD), stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) before 1 January 2012 were identified using diagnosis and/or procedure codes and propensity score matched 1:1 to controls with T2D and without ASCVD, using covariates for birth, sex and level of education in 2012. Follow-up continued until death, migration from Sweden or the end of the study period in 2016. RESULTS: In total, 80,305 individuals with ASCVD, 15,397 individuals with PAD, 17,539 individuals with previous stroke and 25,729 individuals with previous MI were included. Total mean annual costs per person were €14,785 for PAD (2.7 × costs for controls), €11,397 for previous stroke (2.2 × controls), €10,730 for ASCVD (1.9 × controls) and €10,342 for previous MI (1.7 × controls). Indirect costs and costs of inpatient care were the major cost drivers. ASCVD, PAD, stroke and MI were all associated with an increased likelihood of early retirement, cardiovascular events and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD is associated with considerable costs, morbidity and mortality in individuals with T2D. These results support structured assessment of ASCVD risk and broader implementation of guideline-recommended treatments in T2D healthcare.

Burden of established cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes and matched controls: Hospital-based care, days absent from work, costs and mortality.

AIMS: To assess hospital-based care, work absence, associated costs, and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular disease (eCVD) compared to matched controls. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a population-based cohort study, we analysed individual-level data from national health, social insurance and socio-economic registers for people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes before age 70 years and controls (5:1) in Sweden. Regression analysis was used to attribute costs and days absent due to eCVD. Mortality was analysed using Cox proportional hazard regression, stratified by birth year and adjusted for sex and education. RESULTS: Thirty percent (n = 136 135 of 454 983) of people with type 2 diabetes had ≥1 person-year with eCVD (women 24%; men 34%). The mean annual costs of hospital-based care for diabetes complications were EUR 2629 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2601-2657) of which EUR 2337 (95% CI 2309-2365) were attributed to eCVD (89%). The most costly person-years (10th percentile) were observed in a broad subgroup, 42% of people with type 2 diabetes and eCVD. People with type 2 diabetes had on average 146 days absent (95% CI 145-147) per year, of which 68 days (47%; 95% CI 67-70) were attributed to eCVD. The mortality hazard ratio for type 2 diabetes with eCVD was 4.63 (95%CI 4.58-4.68) and without eCVD was 1.86 (95% CI 1.84-1.88) compared to controls without eCVD. CONCLUSION: The sizable burden of eCVD on both the individual with type 2 diabetes and society calls for efficient management in order to reduce the risks for those living with eCVD and to postpone its onset.

Model-based predictions on health benefits and budget impact of implementing empagliflozin in people with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease.

AIM: To perform a model-based analysis of the short- and long-term health benefits and costs of further increased implementation of empagliflozin for people with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease (eCVD) in Sweden. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The validated Institute for Health Economics Diabetes Cohort Model (IHE-DCM) was used to estimate health benefits and a 3-year budget impact, and lifetime costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained of increased implementation of adding empagliflozin to standard of care (SoC) for people with type 2 diabetes and eCVD in a Swedish setting. Scenarios with 100%/75%/50% implementation were explored. Analyses were based on 30 model cohorts with type 2 diabetes and eCVD (n = 131 412 at baseline) from national health data registers. Sensitivity analyses explored the robustness of results. RESULTS: Over 3 years, SoC with empagliflozin (100% implementation) versus SoC before empagliflozin resulted in 7700 total life years gained and reductions in cumulative incidence of cardiovascular deaths by 30% and heart failures by 28%. Annual costs increased by 15% from higher treatment costs and increased survival. Half of these benefits and costs are not yet reached with current implementation below 50%. SoC with empagliflozin yielded 0.37 QALYs per person, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 16 000 EUR per QALY versus SoC before empagliflozin. CONCLUSIONS: Model simulations using real-world data and trial treatment effects indicated that a broader implementation of empagliflozin, in line with current guidelines for treatment of people with type 2 diabetes and eCVD, would lead to further benefits even from a short-term perspective.

Systemic inflammatory markers and serum lactate dehydrogenase predict survival in patients with Wilms tumour.

Introduction: Markers of inflammation such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) have been found to be associated with survival in cancer patients. The aim of the current study was to establish the prognostic significance of simple laboratory markers of systemic inflammation in paediatric patients diagnosed with Wilms tumour (WT). Additionally, we aimed to compare the complete blood count (CBC) parameters of WT patients and the non-oncological control group. Material and methods: The study group included 88 children diagnosed with WT. Clinicopathological data, as well as CBC, C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels at diagnosis, were obtained. Additionally, the laboratory results of 62 healthy control paediatric patients were collected. Uni- and multivariate proportional Cox's hazard analyses were computed to create a model predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in the study group. Results: High CRP, LDH, and NLR were associated with a higher stage of WT and shorter RFS, whereas all parameters correlated with OS. In multivariate analysis, only LDH levels had adverse significance in predicting RFS. C-reactive protein and LMR retained their prognostic value in the multivariate model predicting OS. Comparing the WT group with controls, high LDH, high CRP, high NLR, and high PLR were associated with WT presence. Conclusions: Preoperative LDH, CRP, NLR, PLR, and LMR have significant prognostic value in patients with WT independently of age and stage. Combined low CRP and high LMR identified the group of patients with excellent OS. Patients with high LDH were characterized by the highest risk of relapse.

The implementation of a noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) preoperative prediction model is cost effective in primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The need for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in clinically node-negative (cN0) patients is currently questioned. Our objective was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a preoperative noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) model (an artificial neural network model) for predicting pathological nodal status in patients with cN0 breast cancer (BC). METHODS: A health-economic decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the utility of the NILS model in reducing the proportion of cN0 patients with low predicted risk undergoing SLNB. The model used information from a national registry and published studies, and three sensitivity/specificity scenarios of the NILS model were evaluated. Subgroup analysis explored the outcomes of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy. The results are presented as cost (€) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per 1000 patients. RESULTS: All three scenarios of the NILS model reduced total costs (-€93,244 to -€398,941 per 1000 patients). The overall health benefit allowing for the impact of SLNB complications was a net health gain (7.0-26.9 QALYs per 1000 patients). Sensitivity analyses disregarding reduced quality of life from lymphedema showed a small loss in total health benefits (0.4-4.0 QALYs per 1000 patients) because of the reduction in total life years (0.6-6.5 life years per 1000 patients) after reduced adjuvant treatment. Subgroup analyses showed greater cost reductions and QALY gains in patients undergoing BCS. CONCLUSION: Implementing the NILS model to identify patients with low risk for nodal metastases was associated with substantial cost reductions and likely overall health gains, especially in patients undergoing BCS.

Effect of self-managed lifestyle treatment on glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The lack of effective, scalable solutions for lifestyle treatment is a global clinical problem, causing severe morbidity and mortality. We developed a method for lifestyle treatment that promotes self-reflection and iterative behavioral change, provided as a digital tool, and evaluated its effect in 370 patients with type 2 diabetes (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04691973). Users of the tool had reduced blood glucose, both compared with randomized and matched controls (involving 158 and 204 users, respectively), as well as improved systolic blood pressure, body weight and insulin resistance. The improvement was sustained during the entire follow-up (average 730 days). A pathophysiological subgroup of obese insulin-resistant individuals had a pronounced glycemic response, enabling identification of those who would benefit in particular from lifestyle treatment. Natural language processing showed that the metabolic improvement was coupled with the self-reflective element of the tool. The treatment is cost-saving because of improved risk factor control for cardiovascular complications. The findings open an avenue for self-managed lifestyle treatment with long-term metabolic efficacy that is cost-saving and can reach large numbers of people.

JAK2 V617F as a Marker for Long-Term Disease Progression and Mortality in Polycythemia Vera and its Role in Economic Modeling.

BACKGROUND: In order to facilitate sound economic evaluations of novel treatments, health-economic models of polycythemia vera (PV) must combine effects on surrogate endpoints in trials with disease progression (DP) and mortality in long-term cohort data. OBJECTIVE: We validate an economic model for PV that uses Janus Kinase 2 (JAK2) burden as a surrogate endpoint to predict DP (thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and acute leukemia) and overall survival (OS) based on progression-specific mortality. METHODS: Long-term observational studies that include information about baseline JAK2 burden were identified via PubMed searches and used to validate the model. Kaplan-Meier (KM) OS curves were extracted using a digitizing software. External validity of the model was analyzed by visually comparing OS curves of the model with the KM curves of the included studies, as well as calculating differences in mean OS estimated as area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The model's predictions of cumulative DP were somewhat lower than the published studies. Over 20 years' time, our base case model predicted a mean OS for a PV patient (15.0-16.5 years), which was in line with the published studies (15.8-17.5 years). Modeled mean OS was almost two years longer (1.6-1.9 years) for patients with JAK2 <50% than patients with JAK2 ≥50%. Only three long-term observational studies that satisfied the predefined criteria were found and could be used in the validation, but these studies did not capture JAK2 evolution over time. Improved model predictions of DP and mortality based on the longitudinal evolution of JAK2 could be derived from real-world data sources. Such data are currently scarce and future observational studies should be designed to capture the long-term impact of JAK2 on DP and mortality in PV. CONCLUSIONS: Our model, based on JAK2 burden as a marker for DP, generated OS estimations that are in line with results of published data.